The National Hurricane Center (NHC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), publishes the deciding data in the public advisories for each storm in its Tropical Cyclone Archive. The deciding value is the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic that first attain Category 3 or higher intensity, with maximum sustained winds of at least 96 knots (111 mph), during October 2026, and each hurricane counts only once, at the time it first reaches that intensity. The outcome is Yes if that count is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can resolve Yes as soon as the count passes that value; otherwise it is determined at 11:59 PM CT on the last day of October 2026, and if the data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), publishes the deciding data in the public advisories for each storm in its Tropical Cyclone Archive. The deciding value is the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic that first attain Category 3 or higher intensity, with maximum sustained winds of at least 96 knots (111 mph), during October 2026, and each hurricane counts only once, at the time it first reaches that intensity. The outcome is Yes if that count is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can resolve Yes as soon as the count passes that value; otherwise it is determined at 11:59 PM CT on the last day of October 2026, and if the data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.