Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
No Change73%
Hike 25 Bps42%
Cut 25 Bps5%
Hike ≥50 bps0%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
No Change
0%73%
Hike 25 Bps
0%42%
Cut 25 Bps
0%5%
Hike ≥50 bps
0%0%
Cut ≥50 bps
0%0%
Rules
The outcome is decided by the target overnight rate decision that the Bank of Canada publishes in its interest rate announcement at 8:45 AM CT on October 28, 2026. The change is measured in basis points against the rate in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The target overnight rate is a policy interest rate that the Bank of Canada sets for Canada. The measure is the decision the Bank of Canada announces on the target overnight rate on October 28, 2026, expressed as the direction and size of any change from the level in effect just before it.