Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 2.0%98%
Above 1.5%98%
Above 1.75%97%
Above 1.25%97%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 2.0%
0%98%
Above 1.5%
0%98%
Above 1.75%
0%97%
Above 1.25%
0%97%
Above 2.25%
0%24%
Above 2.75%
0%3%
Above 2.5%
0%2%
Rules
The Bank of Canada publishes the deciding value in its Interest Rate Announcement for the Governing Council meeting ending October 28, 2026, where the overnight rate target is stated in the first sentence under the heading. The outcome is Yes if that target is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the announcement is published at 8:45 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply. If the Bank of Canada delays the announcement, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The overnight rate is the interest rate major banks charge one another for overnight loans, and the Bank of Canada sets a target for it. The event is the level of the overnight rate target the Bank of Canada sets at the Governing Council meeting ending October 28, 2026.