Yes65%
No35%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 30798%
Above 30897%
Above 30697%
Above 30597%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 307
0%98%
Above 308
0%97%
Above 306
0%97%
Above 305
0%97%
Above 304
0%97%
Above 309
0%96%
Above 310
0%94%
Above 311
0%77%
Above 312
0%47%
Above 313
0%7%
Above 314
0%6%
Above 325
0%4%
Above 320
0%4%
Above 323
0%4%
Above 324
0%4%
Above 318
0%3%
Above 319
0%3%
Above 315
0%3%
Above 316
0%3%
Above 321
0%3%
Above 322
0%3%
Above 326
0%3%
Above 317
0%2%
Above 303
0%0%
Above 327
0%0%
Rules
The Bureau of Labor Statistics determines the outcome using the Consumer Price Index Database for All Urban Consumers (Current Series), specifically the Chicago, all-items, Not Seasonally Adjusted CPI series. The outcome is Yes if the published value is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise; resolution occurs when the BLS releases the CPI data at 7:30 AM CT on October 14, 2026, subject to any delay, schedule change, or review under the contract terms, and this contract is not subject to early resolution.
About
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks what consumers pay for a fixed basket of goods and services. The relevant CPI measure is the unadjusted, all-items CPI for Chicago published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.