Yes65%
No35%
Aug 29Sep 6Sep 13Sep 21Sep 28
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 20%
Above 30%
Above 40%
Above 50%
Aug 29Sep 6Sep 13Sep 21Sep 28
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 2
0%0%
Above 3
0%0%
Above 4
0%0%
Above 5
0%0%
Above 6
0%0%
Rules
The National Weather Service’s Daily Climatological Report provides the deciding data. Resolution uses the Chicago entry in the “Precipitation (IN)” table, specifically the “Month to Date” row and “Observed Value” column, as published on the day immediately following the last day of October 2026; the value becomes final on November 1, 2026, and subsequent revisions or recalculations do not affect resolution. An outcome is Yes if that value exceeds the threshold specified in the market question, and No otherwise.
About
Rainfall is the amount of precipitation recorded for a location over a specified period. The total rainfall for Chicago during October 2026 is measured in inches and compared with the threshold specified in each outcome; an outcome is Yes when the total exceeds that threshold.