Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 2.4%98%
Above 2.2%97%
Above 2.0%97%
Above 3.0%96%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 2.4%
0%98%
Above 2.2%
0%97%
Above 2.0%
0%97%
Above 3.0%$40 Vol.
4%96%
Above 2.6%
0%96%
Above 2.8%
0%96%
Above 3.2%$120 Vol.
12%87%
Above 3.4%$160 Vol.
14%51%
Above 3.5%$310 Vol.
29%34%
Rules
The outcome is decided by the year-over-year percent change in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for September 2026, as published by Eurostat in its monthly HICP flash estimate, typically issued on the first or second working day of the following month at 12:00 CET (5:00 AM CT, or 4:00 AM CT during daylight saving time); only the flash estimate is used. The outcome is Yes if that change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome is determined from the value as first published in that release, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices tracks the prices consumers in the eurozone pay for a fixed basket of goods and services. The measure is the year-over-year percent change in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for September 2026, comparing that month's index level with the level for the same month one year earlier.