Yes65%
No35%
Aug 30Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22Sep 29
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Before Nov 1, 20261%
Aug 30Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22Sep 29
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Y
Yes
$0 Vol.No
$0 Vol.N
1%0%
0%1%
Rules
This contract resolves based on the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch’s Port Monitor, accessible here. The contract resolves to Yes if that moving average exceeds the normal level of 60 ships on any day between market creation and November 3, 2026, and to No if it never exceeds that level in that window.
About
This market tracks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to its typical level before November 3, 2026, after a sharp drop in transits earlier in 2026 amid regional disruptions. It reflects a return to routine commercial shipping through the strait.