The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding data in its monthly Consumer Price Index release, and the value used is the month-over-month CPI inflation rate reported in the first paragraph of the Consumer Price Index Summary (the 12-month percent change for a year-over-year rate, or the month-to-month percent change for a month-over-month rate). The outcome compares that rate for the month beginning October 1, 2026 with the same rate for the month before it, and is Increase if the new rate is higher, Remain the Same if it is equal, and Decrease if it is lower. The outcome becomes final when BLS releases the CPI data, typically at 7:30 AM CT on the scheduled release date, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until the data is published.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding data in its monthly Consumer Price Index release, and the value used is the month-over-month CPI inflation rate reported in the first paragraph of the Consumer Price Index Summary (the 12-month percent change for a year-over-year rate, or the month-to-month percent change for a month-over-month rate). The outcome compares that rate for the month beginning October 1, 2026 with the same rate for the month before it, and is Increase if the new rate is higher, Remain the Same if it is equal, and Decrease if it is lower. The outcome becomes final when BLS releases the CPI data, typically at 7:30 AM CT on the scheduled release date, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until the data is published.