Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 42399%
Above 42597%
Above 42497%
Above 42665%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 423
0%99%
Above 425
0%97%
Above 424
0%97%
Above 426$200 Vol.
9%65%
Above 427
0%3%
Above 428
0%2%
Above 429
0%1%
Rules
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its monthly "Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Mauna Loa" report. The deciding value is the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa for September 2026, in parts per million (ppm), and the outcome is Yes if it is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes that report, by 8:00 AM CT on the fifth day of the month after September 2026, and early resolution does not apply. If NOAA delays the report, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, expressed in parts per million (ppm). The event is the average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over September 2026 as measured at Mauna Loa in Hawaii.