The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its global 1-month average temperature anomaly series for land and ocean, normally published in the first half of the following month. The deciding value is the reading for October 2026, expressed as degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average. Only the Celsius value counts, and if NOAA changes its methodology, the data from its most recent model is used. The outcome is Yes if that value is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the figure for October 2026, scheduled for 10:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply; if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its global 1-month average temperature anomaly series for land and ocean, normally published in the first half of the following month. The deciding value is the reading for October 2026, expressed as degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average. Only the Celsius value counts, and if NOAA changes its methodology, the data from its most recent model is used. The outcome is Yes if that value is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the figure for October 2026, scheduled for 10:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply; if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.