Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
> -1.4%1%
> -1.2%1%
> -1.0%1%
> -0.8%1%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
> -1.4%
0%1%
> -1.2%
0%1%
> -1.0%
0%1%
> -0.8%
0%1%
> -0.6%
0%1%
> -0.4%
0%1%
> -0.2%
0%1%
> 0.0%
0%1%
> 0.2%
0%0%
> 0.4%
0%0%
Rules
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding value in its monthly Consumer Price Index report, and the value used is the month-over-month seasonally adjusted percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index for October 2026, as stated in the first paragraph of the Consumer Price Index Summary. The outcome is Yes if that change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BLS releases the CPI data for October 2026, typically at 7:30 AM CT on its scheduled release date. Early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the prices US consumers pay for a broad basket of goods and services. The measure is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in US CPI from the prior month for October 2026.