Yes65%
No35%
Aug 29Sep 6Sep 13Sep 21Sep 28
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 390,00098%
Above 440,00097%
Above 540,00096%
Above 490,00095%
Aug 29Sep 6Sep 13Sep 21Sep 28
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 390,000
0%98%
Above 440,000
0%97%
Above 540,000
0%96%
Above 490,000
0%95%
Above 590,000
14%88%
Above 565,000
0%88%
Above 615,000
2%77%
Above 640,000$50 Vol.
4%64%
Above 665,000
8%27%
Above 690,000
0%13%
Above 715,000
0%3%
Above 740,000
0%3%
Above 765,000
0%1%
Above 790,000
0%1%
Above 840,000
0%1%
Above 890,000
0%1%
Above 940,000
0%1%
Above 990,000
0%1%
Above 1,040,000
0%1%
Rules
The contracts in this market resolve based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new single-family home sales for September 2026, as published in the US Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report. The link to the latest available report can be found here. A contract resolves to Yes if that reading exceeds its specific threshold and to No otherwise.
About
This market tracks new single-family home sales in the US for September 2026, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. New home sales are a closely watched gauge of housing demand and homebuilder activity, published monthly by the federal government.