The outcome is decided by the over-five-year Loan Prime Rate decision that the People's Bank of China publishes in its Loan Prime Rate announcement through the National Interbank Funding Center on October 20, 2026, at about 9:00 AM China Standard Time. The change is measured in basis points against the rate in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

The outcome is decided by the over-five-year Loan Prime Rate decision that the People's Bank of China publishes in its Loan Prime Rate announcement through the National Interbank Funding Center on October 20, 2026, at about 9:00 AM China Standard Time. The change is measured in basis points against the rate in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.