The deciding value is the sum of the publicly reported notional trading volume executed in prediction market contracts during 2026 on a defined list of CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Markets, using publicly available exchange-reported data and regulatory disclosures. The eligible exchanges are KalshiEX (Kalshi), ForecastEx, QCX (Polymarket US), North American Derivatives Exchange (Crypto.com Derivatives North America), Aristotle Exchange DCM (Underdog Exchange), Rothera Exchange and Clearing, RailBird Exchange (DKeX), and Gemini Titan, and eligible exchanges may be added or removed after notice to members. Only prediction market contracts count, meaning contracts that settle on the occurrence, non-occurrence, or outcome of a specified future event or condition, and contracts designed mainly to track continuous prices, rates, indices, or other financial benchmarks are excluded. If an eligible exchange has not publicly reported its volume for any date in the period by the resolution time, its volume for that date counts as zero, and later reported data does not change the result. The outcome is Yes if the total is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise, and it may be determined early, otherwise becoming final at 11:59 PM CT two business days after the last day of 2026.

The deciding value is the sum of the publicly reported notional trading volume executed in prediction market contracts during 2026 on a defined list of CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Markets, using publicly available exchange-reported data and regulatory disclosures. The eligible exchanges are KalshiEX (Kalshi), ForecastEx, QCX (Polymarket US), North American Derivatives Exchange (Crypto.com Derivatives North America), Aristotle Exchange DCM (Underdog Exchange), Rothera Exchange and Clearing, RailBird Exchange (DKeX), and Gemini Titan, and eligible exchanges may be added or removed after notice to members. Only prediction market contracts count, meaning contracts that settle on the occurrence, non-occurrence, or outcome of a specified future event or condition, and contracts designed mainly to track continuous prices, rates, indices, or other financial benchmarks are excluded. If an eligible exchange has not publicly reported its volume for any date in the period by the resolution time, its volume for that date counts as zero, and later reported data does not change the result. The outcome is Yes if the total is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise, and it may be determined early, otherwise becoming final at 11:59 PM CT two business days after the last day of 2026.