The deciding value is the percentage of total US land area in drought published by the US Drought Monitor, a joint effort of the National Drought Mitigation Center, the US Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Monitor publishes every Thursday at 7:30 AM CT, and each release covers the week ending the preceding Tuesday. The outcome is Yes if the reported percentage in the release covering October 6, 2026 is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final at 7:30 AM CT when the US Drought Monitor publishes the weekly data covering October 6, 2026, and the outcome can resolve early if it becomes determinable. If the US Drought Monitor delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The deciding value is the percentage of total US land area in drought published by the US Drought Monitor, a joint effort of the National Drought Mitigation Center, the US Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Monitor publishes every Thursday at 7:30 AM CT, and each release covers the week ending the preceding Tuesday. The outcome is Yes if the reported percentage in the release covering October 6, 2026 is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final at 7:30 AM CT when the US Drought Monitor publishes the weekly data covering October 6, 2026, and the outcome can resolve early if it becomes determinable. If the US Drought Monitor delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.