Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
>6.50%
>6.60%
>6.70%
>6.80%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
>6.5
0%0%
>6.6
0%0%
>6.7
0%0%
>6.8
0%0%
>6.9
0%0%
>7
0%0%
>7.1
0%0%
>7.2
0%0%
>7.3
0%0%
>7.4
0%0%
>7.5
0%0%
Rules
The outcome is decided by the weekly national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, shown under US 30-Year FRM in its weekly dataset, for the week ending October 8, 2026. The outcome is Yes if that rate is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome is determined when Freddie Mac publishes the survey, on Thursdays at 11:00 AM CT, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
A mortgage rate is the interest rate a lender charges on a loan used to buy a home. The measure is the national average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US for the week ending October 8, 2026.