Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 2.497%
Above 2.695%
Above 2.890%
Above 359%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 2.4
0%97%
Above 2.6
0%95%
Above 2.8
0%90%
Above 3$20 Vol.
0%59%
Above 3.2$60 Vol.
0%52%
Above 3.4
0%47%
Above 3.8
0%11%
Above 3.6
0%5%
Above 4
0%1%
Rules
The deciding value is the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding Food and Energy (Core PCE), published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on the PCE excluding food and energy line of Table 7 in the Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BEA releases the Personal Income and Outlays report at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the final Friday of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if BEA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
Core PCE inflation is the rate at which prices for consumer goods and services in the US, excluding food and energy, rise or fall. The event is the year-over-year change in the core PCE price index for September 2026.