The deciding value is the US Housing Starts figure published by the US Census Bureau in its monthly housing starts release for September 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported number is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the initial release counts: the value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes it at 7:30 AM CT on its release day, the 12th business day of the month, and later revisions do not change the outcome. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The deciding value is the US Housing Starts figure published by the US Census Bureau in its monthly housing starts release for September 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported number is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the initial release counts: the value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes it at 7:30 AM CT on its release day, the 12th business day of the month, and later revisions do not change the outcome. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.