The deciding value is the number of US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3, 2026, as reported in the headline figure of the weekly Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report published by the US Department of Labor (DOL). The outcome is Yes if the reported number is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when DOL publishes the report at 7:30 AM CT, normally on Thursday, or on Wednesday when Thursday is a holiday. Early resolution does not apply, and if DOL delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The deciding value is the number of US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3, 2026, as reported in the headline figure of the weekly Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report published by the US Department of Labor (DOL). The outcome is Yes if the reported number is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when DOL publishes the report at 7:30 AM CT, normally on Thursday, or on Wednesday when Thursday is a holiday. Early resolution does not apply, and if DOL delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.