The deciding value is the number of tornado storm reports in the US during October 2026, as reported by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in its Preliminary Report Summary totals for that period (Month Totals for the US, State Totals for a state). Only the first preliminary count published right after the period ends is used, and later revisions, quality-control updates, or retrospective changes do not change the outcome. The outcome is Yes if the number of reports is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome is determined at 9:00 AM CT on the day after October 2026 ends, and it can resolve early once it becomes determinable. If NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The deciding value is the number of tornado storm reports in the US during October 2026, as reported by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in its Preliminary Report Summary totals for that period (Month Totals for the US, State Totals for a state). Only the first preliminary count published right after the period ends is used, and later revisions, quality-control updates, or retrospective changes do not change the outcome. The outcome is Yes if the number of reports is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome is determined at 9:00 AM CT on the day after October 2026 ends, and it can resolve early once it becomes determinable. If NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.