Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 10,00083%
Above 5,00081%
Above 40,00077%
Above 50,00072%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 10,000$14K Vol.
4%83%
Above 5,000
0%81%
Above 40,000$200 Vol.
1%77%
Above 50,000
0%72%
Above 60,000$70 Vol.
0%69%
Above 70,000
0%66%
Above 80,000
3%60%
Above 90,000$45 Vol.
5%53%
Above 100,000
2%46%
Above 110,000
3%32%
Above 120,000
1%29%
Above 130,000
0%25%
Above 140,000
0%23%
Above 150,000$20 Vol.
4%19%
Above 160,000
0%10%
Above 180,000
0%10%
Above 170,000
0%9%
Above 190,000
0%9%
Above 200,000
0%8%
Above 210,000
0%6%
Above 220,000
0%4%
Rules
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding data in The Employment Situation report, and the deciding value is the monthly change in US nonfarm payroll employment for September 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the initial release counts, and later revisions do not change the outcome; the value becomes final when BLS publishes it at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the third Friday after the reference week that includes the 12th of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if BLS delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
Nonfarm payroll employment is the number of workers in the US excluding farm workers and a handful of other job classifications. The measure is the monthly change in that count for September 2026, which can be an increase or a decrease.