Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 3.6%98%
Above 3.2%98%
Above 2.8%98%
Above 2.4%98%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 3.6%
0%98%
Above 3.2%
0%98%
Above 2.8%
0%98%
Above 2.4%
0%98%
Above 4.0%
0%96%
Above 4.4%
0%92%
Above 4.8%
0%91%
Above 5.0%
0%84%
Above 5.2%
0%1%
Above 5.4%
0%1%
Above 5.6%
0%0%
Above 5.8%
0%0%
Rules
The deciding value is the headline year-over-year percentage change in the US Producer Price Index (PPI), as stated in the last sentence of the first paragraph of the monthly PPI release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), for September 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BLS publishes the release at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the 9th business day of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if BLS delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The Producer Price Index measures the average change in the prices that domestic producers in the US receive for their goods and services. The measure is the year-over-year percentage change in the index for September 2026.