The deciding value is the month-over-month percentage change in US retail sales published by the US Census Bureau in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report (Advance Estimates of US Retail and Food Services) for September 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes the advance report at 7:30 AM CT, typically around the 15th of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The deciding value is the month-over-month percentage change in US retail sales published by the US Census Bureau in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report (Advance Estimates of US Retail and Food Services) for September 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes the advance report at 7:30 AM CT, typically around the 15th of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.