Share price
Updated November 10, 2026
Share price is the current trading price of an event contract, quoted in cents on the dollar (e.g., 63¢). On a liquid $1 yes/no contract, the mid-price approximates implied probability, but spread, fees, and liquidity can widen the gap.
A contract last traded at 71¢. In a deep, two-outcome market, that suggests traders price the event near 71%: buy yes at 71¢ and you risk 71¢ to win 29¢ net on a $1 payout. If the ask is 73¢ and the bid is 69¢, your effective entry cost is higher than the mid; use the price you actually pay when sizing a position.
“Share” here means a unit of the contract, not equity stock. Prices move as new information arrives and as traders enter or exit.
In thin markets, displayed last trade can lag true consensus. In multi-outcome topics, normalize across outcomes before treating prices as probabilities.
The four prices on a contract
A contract shows more than one price, and each answers a different question.
The highest price someone is currently offering to pay. It is roughly what you get if you sell now.
The lowest price someone is currently willing to sell at. It is what you pay if you buy now.
Halfway between the bid and the ask. The usual shorthand for the market's probability.
The price of the most recent fill. It can be minutes or days old.
In a liquid contract all four sit within a cent or two of each other. When they spread out, the mid is the better probability reading and the ask is the better cost reading. On Lumina, contracts trade between 2¢ and 99¢.
What the price means for your payout
The share price sets both sides of a position. Buy yes at price c and you gain $1 − c per contract if it settles yes, or lose c if it settles no. At 73¢, with Lumina's fee and commission included, that is a 25.7445¢ gain against a 74.2555¢ loss. At 20¢ it is a 78.93¢ gain against a 21.07¢ loss.
The yes and no prices on the same question sit near a combined $1, because exactly one side pays. If yes trades near 71¢, no trades near 29¢, and buying no at that price is how you take the view that the outcome is less likely than 71%.
Fees come on top of the price. On Lumina that is a $0.01 per-contract exchange fee plus 0.35% of trade value, so buying at the 73¢ ask costs 74.2555¢ per contract all in. Statements and confirmations show amounts rounded to the cent. The payout calculator runs this for any price and size.
FAQ
Is share price the same as probability?
On a liquid $1 contract, the mid reads as an approximate implied probability: 71¢ is roughly 71%. Spread, fees and thin trading move the two apart.
Why does a prediction market share cost less than $1?
Because it pays $1 only if the event happens. The price is what traders will pay now for a dollar that arrives only on a yes outcome, and the less likely the outcome, the lower that price.
What happens to the share price at settlement?
It goes to $1 if the outcome is yes and $0 if it is no. On a yes outcome, a yes contract bought at 71¢ pays $1 and a no contract on the same question pays nothing.