2026 Midterm Election Odds

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats and 36 governor races.

Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.

The Senate control market has Democrats at 67% and Republicans at 37%. The House control market has Democrats at 92% and Republicans at 10%. Prices as of Oct 21, 2026 · 9:25 PM ET.

From event contracts listed on ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Traders set every price on this page by buying and selling, and Lumina offers the same markets.

Prices on this page refresh every 5 minutes, and the time of the last refresh is under the title. Each market’s own page shows its price as it trades.

Trades. A price changes when someone buys or sells at a new price, so the odds move as traders react to polls, debates, candidate news and, on election night, results. A race with little trading can hold the same price for days.

Each side is its own contract with its own last trade, so two sides can add up to 99% or 101%. A race with more than two candidates lists every one of them, each on a separate contract.

They’re price bands for the leader in each race. Solid is 85% or higher, Likely 70–84%, Lean 55–69%, and Toss-Up anything under 55%. The bands sort races by price. They aren’t Lumina’s own rating.

Each contract settles under its own rules, which name the result it goes by and the date. A contract that’s right pays $1 and one that’s wrong pays $0. The Senate and House control contracts settle Jan 3, 2027. The rules are on each market’s page.

Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility. Election markets are not available in all jurisdictions, so whether you can trade them depends on where you live.

The markets on this page are the election contracts listed on ForecastEx: control of the Senate and of the House, and each Senate, governor and House race shown here. Some races also have markets on the margin of victory. They are not available in all jurisdictions. Open a race to see its contracts.

Open a race from the map or the lists, then go to its market. Each candidate’s contract trades as Yes or No. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx.