As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, Lumina’s “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028” market prices Josh Shapiro at 25% and Gavin Newsom at 22%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The Democratic National Committee is the deciding source, and the outcome is determined once a candidate is nominated and accepts the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. The outcome is Yes if the candidate named in the market question is that nominee and No otherwise. It can be decided early if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called the nomination for the same candidate, confirming that the candidate has clinched enough delegates to win on the first ballot, unless that happens within 30 days of the convention or there is credible uncertainty about delegate counts or possible changes before the convention; otherwise it stays open until the party formally nominates its candidate, with resolution scheduled for 8:00 AM CT on the day after the convention ends. A candidate who formally withdraws, fails to file by the filing deadline or is publicly confirmed as no longer seeking the office at least 14 days before the election may resolve to No, and that result does not change if the candidate later re-enters. If the official nomination record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
A party's presidential nominee is the person who will represent that party in the US general election for President. The Democratic Party chooses its nominee through state primaries and caucuses, and the event is which candidate is formally nominated and accepts the nomination at the Democratic National Convention for the 2028 election.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028” market ask?
Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028? The leaders are Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, among 9 outcomes, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, Lumina’s “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028” market prices Josh Shapiro at 25% and Gavin Newsom at 22%.
How have the odds moved for “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, Josh Shapiro is at 25%, level with the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of Josh Shapiro mean in the “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, a Yes contract on Josh Shapiro trades at 25¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 25¢ shows as 25%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, open interest is $312K, and $6.2K has traded in the current session.
When does trading close on “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Sep 1, 2028, 2:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Sep 1, 2028, 4:00 pm ET.
How does “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028” resolve, and from which source?
The Democratic National Committee is the deciding source, and the outcome is determined once a candidate is nominated and accepts the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. The outcome is Yes if the candidate named in the market question is that nominee and No otherwise. It can be decided early if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called the nomination for the same candidate, confirming that the candidate has clinched enough delegates to win on the first ballot, unless that happens within 30 days of the convention or there is credible uncertainty about delegate counts or possible changes before the convention; otherwise it stays open until the party formally nominates its candidate, with resolution scheduled for 8:00 AM CT on the day after the convention ends. A candidate who formally withdraws, fails to file by the filing deadline or is publicly confirmed as no longer seeking the office at least 14 days before the election may resolve to No, and that result does not change if the candidate later re-enters. If the official nomination record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Democratic National Committee.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
