As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:11 pm ET, Lumina’s “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election” market prices Democratic at 58% and Republican at 47%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The United States Congress provides the deciding record, which is the certification of the winner of the US Presidential Election at the January 6 joint session of Congress following the 2028 election, published in the Congressional Record the following business day. The outcome is Yes if the certified winner belongs to the party named in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome can be decided early, before certification, if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called the race for the same candidate and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is pending or announced; otherwise it stays open until those conditions are met or until certification, and resolution is scheduled for 9:00 AM CT on the business day after the joint session, when the Congressional Record is published. If the Congressional Record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The US President is the head of the executive branch of the federal government and is chosen in a national election. A candidate wins the presidency by receiving a majority of Electoral College votes, at least 270 of 538. The measure is the political party of the candidate who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election” market ask?
Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election? The outcomes are Democratic and Republican, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:11 pm ET, Lumina’s “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election” market prices Democratic at 58% and Republican at 47%.
How have the odds moved for “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:11 pm ET, Democratic is at 58%, up 5 points from the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of Democratic mean in the “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:11 pm ET, a Yes contract on Democratic trades at 58¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 58¢ shows as 58%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:11 pm ET, open interest is $51K.
When does trading close on “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jan 7, 2029, 4:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Jan 7, 2029, 6:00 pm ET.
How does “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election” resolve, and from which source?
The United States Congress provides the deciding record, which is the certification of the winner of the US Presidential Election at the January 6 joint session of Congress following the 2028 election, published in the Congressional Record the following business day. The outcome is Yes if the certified winner belongs to the party named in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome can be decided early, before certification, if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called the race for the same candidate and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is pending or announced; otherwise it stays open until those conditions are met or until certification, and resolution is scheduled for 9:00 AM CT on the business day after the joint session, when the Congressional Record is published. If the Congressional Record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is United States Congress.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Winning Party in the 2028 US Presidential Election”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
