As of Nov 13, 2026, 10:47 am ET, Lumina’s “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028” market prices JD Vance at 20% and Marco Rubio at 16%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The United States Congress publishes the deciding result, which is the candidate certified as the winner during the January 6 joint session of Congress following the 2028 election, as recorded in the Congressional Record the following business day. The outcome is Yes if the candidate named in the market question is certified as the winner and No otherwise, whether or not that candidate ultimately takes office. The outcome can be decided early if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called the race for the same candidate and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is pending or announced; otherwise the value becomes final when the Congressional Record is published at 9:00 AM CT on the business day after the joint session. A candidate who formally withdraws, fails to file by the filing deadline or is publicly confirmed as no longer seeking the office at least 14 days before the election may resolve to No, and that result does not change if the candidate later re-enters or wins. If the Congressional Record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The US President is chosen through a national election in which voters determine the Electoral College electors, and the winner leads the executive branch. The event is which candidate is certified by Congress as the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election.
Questions and Answers
What does the “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028” market ask?
US Presidential Election Winner in 2028? The leaders are JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsom, among 4 outcomes, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 10:47 am ET, Lumina’s “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028” market prices JD Vance at 20% and Marco Rubio at 16%.
How have the odds moved for “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 10:47 am ET, JD Vance is at 20%, up 1 point from the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of JD Vance mean in the “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 10:47 am ET, a Yes contract on JD Vance trades at 20¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 20¢ shows as 20%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 10:47 am ET, open interest is $4.3K.
When does trading close on “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jan 8, 2029, 10:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Jan 8, 2029, 12:00 pm ET.
How does “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028” resolve, and from which source?
The United States Congress publishes the deciding result, which is the candidate certified as the winner during the January 6 joint session of Congress following the 2028 election, as recorded in the Congressional Record the following business day. The outcome is Yes if the candidate named in the market question is certified as the winner and No otherwise, whether or not that candidate ultimately takes office. The outcome can be decided early if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called the race for the same candidate and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is pending or announced; otherwise the value becomes final when the Congressional Record is published at 9:00 AM CT on the business day after the joint session. A candidate who formally withdraws, fails to file by the filing deadline or is publicly confirmed as no longer seeking the office at least 14 days before the election may resolve to No, and that result does not change if the candidate later re-enters or wins. If the Congressional Record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is United States Congress.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “US Presidential Election Winner in 2028”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
