BTC lowest price by 2026?

BTC lowest price by 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Below 55,000” pays $1 if the result is below 55,000, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 13 thresholds, from “Below 30,000” to “Below 80,000”.

As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, Lumina’s “BTC lowest price by 2026” market prices "Below 55,000" at 14%.

As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, "Below 55,000" is at 14%, up 4 points from the prior trading day’s close.

As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, a Yes contract on "Below 55,000" trades at 14¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 14¢ shows as 14%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.

As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, open interest is $1.6M, and $27K has traded in the current session.

Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jan 1, 2027, 12:59 am ET, and payout is projected for Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 am ET.

CF Benchmarks publishes the deciding data through its Real-Time Index for Bitcoin. For each minute of the period specified in the market question, all index values for that minute are collected, the highest 20% and lowest 20% are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged to give a trimmed mean price; the deciding value is the lowest of these per-minute prices during the period. The outcome is Yes if that price is below the value specified in the market question at any point during the period and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can be decided as soon as the price crosses that value; otherwise the value becomes final at 11:59 PM CT on the last day of the period, and if the index data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is CF Benchmarks.

In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.

Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.

Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.

Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.