Chart
Outcomes
Rules
This market resolves against the lowest daily temperature recorded for the designated Chicago station in the Daily Observations table under the History tab's Daily view on Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com) for November 14, 2026. If Weather Underground's website is temporarily unavailable, contract resolution will occur once access to the complete daily temperature data for the applicable station and date is restored.
About
Chicago's daily temperature low is the lowest air temperature the city reaches over a single calendar day. The temperature is measured in degrees Fahrenheit.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Chicago Daily Temperature Low on November 14, 2026” market ask?
Chicago Daily Temperature Low on November 14, 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Below 29” pays $1 if the result is below 29, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 11 thresholds, from “Below 29” to “Below 39”.
How did “Chicago Daily Temperature Low on November 14, 2026” resolve?
The winning outcome is Below 30.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Chicago Daily Temperature Low on November 14, 2026”?
Trading closed on Nov 15, 2026, 12:59 am ET.
How does “Chicago Daily Temperature Low on November 14, 2026” resolve, and from which source?
This market resolves against the lowest daily temperature recorded for the designated Chicago station in the Daily Observations table under the History tab's Daily view on Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com) for November 14, 2026. If Weather Underground's website is temporarily unavailable, contract resolution will occur once access to the complete daily temperature data for the applicable station and date is restored. The resolution source is Weather Underground.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
