The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) publishes the deciding data in its monthly Agricultural Prices report released the month after October 2026. The deciding value is the month-over-month percentage change in prices paid by farmers for fertilizer for October 2026, calculated as the value for that month divided by the value for the comparison month, minus one, expressed as a percentage. For a year-over-year change, the comparison month is the same month a year earlier and the values come from the table for that commodity listed in the report's table of contents; for a month-over-month change, the comparison month is the preceding month and the values come from the Prices Paid Indexes and Related Parity Ratios table. The outcome is Yes if it exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when that report is published, typically on the last business day of the month at 2:00 PM CT, later revisions do not affect the outcome, and early resolution does not apply. If USDA delays the report, resolution waits until it is published.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) publishes the deciding data in its monthly Agricultural Prices report released the month after October 2026. The deciding value is the month-over-month percentage change in prices paid by farmers for fertilizer for October 2026, calculated as the value for that month divided by the value for the comparison month, minus one, expressed as a percentage. For a year-over-year change, the comparison month is the same month a year earlier and the values come from the table for that commodity listed in the report's table of contents; for a month-over-month change, the comparison month is the preceding month and the values come from the Prices Paid Indexes and Related Parity Ratios table. The outcome is Yes if it exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when that report is published, typically on the last business day of the month at 2:00 PM CT, later revisions do not affect the outcome, and early resolution does not apply. If USDA delays the report, resolution waits until it is published.