Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:33 pm ET, Lumina’s “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028” market prices "Above 4.86" at 63% and "Above 4.88" at 49%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The outcome is decided by the World Total yield for milled rice, in metric tons per hectare, reported by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service in its World Agricultural Production report and the Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) Online database, for the 2028 marketing year. 2028 is the second year of the marketing year, while PSD labels a marketing year by its first year, so a 2026 market uses the PSD 2025 marketing year. The outcome is Yes if the rounded yield as shown in PSD Online is strictly greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value used is the one in the first monthly report and PSD update released after that crop's marketing year ends, early resolution does not apply, and if the report is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Crop yield is the amount of grain farmers harvest from each hectare of land. The measure is the global average yield of milled rice for a given marketing year, in metric tons per hectare.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028” market ask?
Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 4.86” pays $1 if the result is above 4.86, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 13 thresholds, from “Above 4.74” to “Above 5.1”.
What are the current odds for “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:33 pm ET, Lumina’s “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028” market prices "Above 4.86" at 63% and "Above 4.88" at 49%.
Which range is most likely for “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:33 pm ET, the prices put the result above 4.9 but not above 4.94 at 35%, the most likely band on the ladder.
What does the price of "Above 4.86" mean in the “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:33 pm ET, a Yes contract on "Above 4.86" trades at 63¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 63¢ shows as 63%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Aug 12, 2028, 12:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Aug 12, 2028, 2:00 pm ET.
How does “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028” resolve, and from which source?
The outcome is decided by the World Total yield for milled rice, in metric tons per hectare, reported by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service in its World Agricultural Production report and the Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) Online database, for the 2028 marketing year. 2028 is the second year of the marketing year, while PSD labels a marketing year by its first year, so a 2026 market uses the PSD 2025 marketing year. The outcome is Yes if the rounded yield as shown in PSD Online is strictly greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value used is the one in the first monthly report and PSD update released after that crop's marketing year ends, early resolution does not apply, and if the report is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Global Crop Yield of Milled Rice for 2028”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
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What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
