The outcome is decided by the official certified results of the November 3, 2026 US Senate general election in Texas, as published by the Texas Secretary of State Elections Division, which takes precedence over any other government source. The margin is Ken Paxton's official vote percentage minus that of the candidate finishing immediately behind if Ken Paxton wins, or minus the winner's if Ken Paxton does not win, with no rounding; a tie for first counts as zero, and votes for Ken Paxton on more than one ballot line are combined. The outcome is Yes if that margin is strictly greater than the number of percentage points specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the general election counts, even if a runoff is later needed; the outcome stands if Ken Paxton withdraws or dies but stays in the certified results, and it is No if the election is cancelled with no successor election before expiration. Early resolution does not apply, and the outcome is determined at 11:59 PM CT on the official canvassing deadline set by the election authority; if the certified results are delayed, resolution waits until they are published.

The outcome is decided by the official certified results of the November 3, 2026 US Senate general election in Texas, as published by the Texas Secretary of State Elections Division, which takes precedence over any other government source. The margin is Ken Paxton's official vote percentage minus that of the candidate finishing immediately behind if Ken Paxton wins, or minus the winner's if Ken Paxton does not win, with no rounding; a tie for first counts as zero, and votes for Ken Paxton on more than one ballot line are combined. The outcome is Yes if that margin is strictly greater than the number of percentage points specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the general election counts, even if a runoff is later needed; the outcome stands if Ken Paxton withdraws or dies but stays in the certified results, and it is No if the election is cancelled with no successor election before expiration. Early resolution does not apply, and the outcome is determined at 11:59 PM CT on the official canvassing deadline set by the election authority; if the certified results are delayed, resolution waits until they are published.