Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 390,00094%
Above 340,00094%
Above 290,00094%
Above 440,00090%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 390,000
0%94%
Above 340,000
0%94%
Above 290,000
0%94%
Above 440,000
0%90%
Above 490,000
0%87%
Above 540,000
0%76%
Above 590,000
0%58%
Above 640,000
0%47%
Above 690,000
0%38%
Above 740,000
0%18%
Above 790,000
0%11%
Above 840,000
0%9%
Above 990,000
0%6%
Above 890,000
0%5%
Above 940,000
0%3%
Rules
The deciding value is the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new single-family home sales (New Houses Sold) published by the US Census Bureau in the New Residential Sales report for December 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported number is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes the report at 9:00 AM CT, typically on the 17th business day of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
New home sales are sales of newly built single-family homes. The measure counts those sales in the US for December 2026, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate.