As of Nov 15, 2026, 5:45 pm ET, Lumina’s “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026” market prices "Above 53" at 57% and "Above 54" at 20%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
This market resolves against the maximum daily temperature recorded for the designated New York City station in the Daily Observations table under the History tab's Daily view on Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com) for November 16, 2026. A contract resolves to Yes only if that day's recorded high strictly exceeds its specific threshold; a recorded high equal to the threshold itself does not satisfy "exceed" and resolves to No. If Weather Underground's website is temporarily unavailable, contract resolution will occur once access to the complete daily temperature data for the applicable station and date is restored.
About
New York City's daily temperature high is the peak air temperature the city reaches over a single calendar day. The temperature is measured in degrees Fahrenheit.
Questions and Answers
What does the “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026” market ask?
New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 53” pays $1 if the result is above 53, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 13 thresholds, from “Above 49” to “Above 61”.
What are the current odds for “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026”?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 5:45 pm ET, Lumina’s “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026” market prices "Above 53" at 57% and "Above 54" at 20%.
Which range is most likely for “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026”?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 5:45 pm ET, the prices put the result above 53 but not above 54 at 37%, the most likely band on the ladder.
What does the price of "Above 53" mean in the “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026” market?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 5:45 pm ET, a Yes contract on "Above 53" trades at 57¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 57¢ shows as 57%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026” market?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 5:45 pm ET, open interest is $167, and $339 has traded in the current session.
When does trading close on “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026”?
Trading closes on Nov 16, 2026, 11:59 pm ET. The outcome resolves on Nov 17, 2026, 1:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Nov 17, 2026, 3:00 am ET.
How does “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026” resolve, and from which source?
This market resolves against the maximum daily temperature recorded for the designated New York City station in the Daily Observations table under the History tab's Daily view on Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com) for November 16, 2026. A contract resolves to Yes only if that day's recorded high strictly exceeds its specific threshold; a recorded high equal to the threshold itself does not satisfy "exceed" and resolves to No. If Weather Underground's website is temporarily unavailable, contract resolution will occur once access to the complete daily temperature data for the applicable station and date is restored. The resolution source is Weather Underground.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “New York City Daily Temperature High on November 16, 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
