The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its global land and ocean average temperature anomaly series, using the 12-month reading ending in December, which ranks each year against every year since 1850. The outcome is Yes if NOAA reports 2026 as the warmest year since 1850 and No otherwise. If NOAA changes its methodology, the data from its most recent model is used. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the annual global temperature data, normally at 10:00 AM CT in the first half of the January after 2026, early resolution does not apply, and if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its global land and ocean average temperature anomaly series, using the 12-month reading ending in December, which ranks each year against every year since 1850. The outcome is Yes if NOAA reports 2026 as the warmest year since 1850 and No otherwise. If NOAA changes its methodology, the data from its most recent model is used. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the annual global temperature data, normally at 10:00 AM CT in the first half of the January after 2026, early resolution does not apply, and if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.