Yes65%
No35%
Sep 20Sep 28Oct 5Oct 13Oct 20
100%75%50%25%0%
Expiration
LIVE
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision on November 3, 2026?
Chart
No Change99%
Hike 25 Bps25%
Hike ≥50bp20%
Cut ≥50bp20%
Sep 20Sep 28Oct 5Oct 13Oct 20
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
No Change
20%99%
Hike 25 Bps
10%25%
Hike ≥50bp
0%20%
Cut ≥50bp
0%20%
Cut 25 Bps
0%15%
Rules
The outcome is decided by the cash rate target decision that the Reserve Bank of Australia publishes in its interest rate decision statement at 2:30 PM Australian Eastern Standard Time on November 3, 2026. The change is measured in basis points against the rate in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The cash rate target is a policy interest rate that the Reserve Bank of Australia sets for Australia. The measure is the decision the Reserve Bank of Australia announces on the cash rate target on November 3, 2026, expressed as the direction and size of any change from the level in effect just before it.
