CPI print
Updated November 10, 2026
A CPI print is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly Consumer Price Index release, measuring average price change for urban consumers’ market basket. Macro contracts often resolve on specific CPI thresholds vs prior month or year.
Illustrative figures. A monthly CPI print shows headline +0.4% m/m and +3.2% y/y. A contract “CPI y/y above 3.0% in the next release” resolves yes if the BLS official release meets the rule text, not a media headline rounded differently. Traders reposition in the hours around 8:30 a.m. ET release.
- Headline CPI, month over month
- +0.4%
- Headline CPI, year over year
- +3.2%
- Resolves on the BLS official release
- Contract threshold, year over year
- 3.0%
Which number in the release
One CPI release contains many series, and a contract settles on the one it names. The main choices:
- Headline or core. Headline CPI covers the full basket. Core CPI excludes food and energy, and the two can move in different directions in the same month.
- Month over month or year over year. The example’s +0.4% and +3.2% come from the same print and answer different questions.
- Seasonally adjusted or not. The monthly change in the release is usually quoted seasonally adjusted, and the 12-month change before seasonal adjustment.
A contract naming headline year-over-year CPI doesn’t settle on core, however much coverage core gets that morning. How economic-data markets work goes through the series in more detail.
Revisions, rounding and delays
CPI is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and covers the prior month. Seasonally adjusted figures are revised each February, when BLS updates the seasonal factors and applies them to the previous five years of data. The unadjusted index isn’t part of that cycle. A contract referencing the seasonally adjusted series is referencing a number that can still change, so the vintage the contract names matters.
Rounding can decide a threshold. If the year-over-year figure prints at exactly 3.0%, a contract on “above 3.0%” turns on the published precision and on how the rule text defines “above”. A lapse in federal appropriations can also delay or cancel a release, and in that case the contract’s fallback terms decide what happens. Both details sit in the contract’s resolution source and rules.
CPI also feeds other markets. Inflation data is one of the inputs the FOMC weighs, so fed-rate contracts can move on a CPI print as well.
FAQ
What time is the CPI released?
At 8:30 a.m. ET on the scheduled release day. BLS publishes the release calendar in advance.
What is the difference between headline and core CPI?
Headline CPI covers the whole basket of goods and services. Core CPI excludes food and energy, which tend to swing more from month to month.
Does CPI get revised?
Seasonally adjusted CPI is revised each February for the previous five years. The not-seasonally-adjusted index isn’t revised in that cycle.