Resolution source
Updated November 10, 2026
A resolution source is the authority named in contract rules that determines the outcome, such as NBER for US recession calls or BLS for CPI releases. The market settles based on that source’s official determination, not media shorthand.
Say a recession contract names the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee as its resolution source.
Only when NBER declares a recession.
Not when two quarters of GDP decline appear in headlines.
On that contract, traders who price the “GDP rule” instead of NBER’s criteria can be wrong even if the economy clearly slowed. A contract that defines a recession as two consecutive negative quarters of real GDP works the other way: it settles on those GDP readings, not on NBER.
Always read the contract’s rule text for the exact resolution source, thresholds, and timing. Ambiguity in rules is a real trading risk: prices can diverge from “obvious” outcomes when the source’s criteria differ from common assumptions.
What a contract names besides the source
The source answers who decides. A fully specified contract also says which figure from that source counts, at which moment, and what happens if the source doesn't publish. Each of these can change the result while the source stays the same.
- The measure
Which number from the source. A single BLS CPI release includes headline and core figures, seasonally adjusted and not, and they can land on different sides of a threshold.
- The timing
Which publication and which vintage. Payroll estimates are revised twice in the two months after the first print, so a contract settling on the first print and one settling on a revised figure can resolve differently.
- The fallback
What happens if the source doesn't publish on schedule. Releases can be delayed or suspended, and the fallback provision decides the outcome then.
Where source mismatches happen
Most settlement surprises come from a real-world outcome producing more than one answer. A few common cases:
- Calls and certification. News outlets call an election on election night. A contract that names the certified result settles on certification, which can come days or weeks later.
- Announcements and official records. An awards contract can name the official record rather than what was read out on stage.
- Headline and core. A trader following core inflation can be right about it and still see a contract that names headline CPI resolve the other way.
In each case the contract had already chosen which answer counts. How prediction markets resolve works through these by category.
FAQ
What is a resolution source in a prediction market?
The authority a contract names to determine its outcome, such as BLS for a CPI print or the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee for a US recession. The contract settles on that source's determination.
Who decides how a contract resolves?
The contract's terms, applied against the named source. When the source publishes, the exchange determines the outcome against the written criteria and settles the contracts. Lumina's contracts are listed on ForecastEx, a CFTC-registered designated contract market.
What happens if the resolution source doesn't publish?
The contract's fallback provision governs. Its answer may differ from the one a trader assumed, so it belongs in the rule text you read before trading.