Resolution / settlement
Updated November 10, 2026
Resolution (or settlement) is the process that determines the winning outcome and pays $1 per winning contract and $0 per losing contract, based on the contract rules and named resolution source.
You hold 25 yes contracts on “Fed cuts at its next meeting.”
- FOMC announcementOutcome confirmed
After the FOMC announcement, the resolution source confirms no cut.
- SettlementContracts settle
Each yes settles at $0.00; your no side (if held) pays $1.00 per contract.
- After verificationFunds credit
Funds typically credit after the platform verifies the official outcome; timing is in the contract rules.
Resolution, then settlement
The two words are often used as one. Strictly, resolution is the determination: the contract’s terms applied to the named resolution source to decide which side won. Settlement is the payout that follows, when each winning contract pays $1 and each losing one pays $0.
How far apart they fall depends on the source. A CPI contract can resolve soon after the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the figure. An election contract that names certified results waits for certification, which in many races comes weeks after the race is called.
What decides the outcome
A contract settles on the terms it names. Those usually match the news, and occasionally they don’t. A fully specified event contract names the source, the exact measure from that source, the timing or vintage that counts, and a fallback if the source doesn’t publish on schedule.
Each term can change the result. Headline and core CPI come from the same release and can land on opposite sides of a threshold. A payroll figure can clear a threshold on first print and be revised below it later, and the vintage the contract names decides which number settles it. How a prediction market resolves works through each term.
What settlement pays
The payout is fixed at $1 per winning contract whatever you paid for it, so the result of a trade depends on the entry price. Continuing the example with an illustrative entry price: 25 no contracts bought at 60¢ cost $15.00, plus a $0.25 exchange fee and a $0.0525 commission, $15.3025 in all. They settle for $25.00, a $9.6975 net profit after fees. The 25 yes contracts settle at $0.00, so the full amount paid for them is lost.
- Paid for 25 no at 60¢
- $15.3025
- $15.00, plus $0.25 exchange fee and $0.0525 commission
- Paid at settlement, $1 × 25
- $25.00
- Net profit after fees
- $9.6975
FAQ
What does settlement mean in a prediction market?
It’s the payout at the end of a contract: $1 for each winning contract and $0 for each losing one when it resolves normally, once the outcome has been determined against the contract’s named source.
How long does settlement take?
It depends on the source and the timing the contract names. A data contract can settle soon after the release; a contract naming certified election results waits for certification. The contract rules state the timing.
Can a contract settle differently from the news?
Yes. Settlement follows the source, measure and vintage the contract names, so a media headline, an early call or a later revision only decides the outcome if the terms say it does.