The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its Climate at a Glance global average temperature anomaly series for land and ocean, using the 12-month reading ending in December for each year. NOAA reports this anomaly against its 1901 to 2000 average, and the figure is adjusted to the 1850 to 1900 preindustrial baseline by an offset based on NOAA's reported 1850 to 1900 average, currently estimated at 0.18 degrees Celsius and subject to update if NOAA changes its methodology or historical record; if NOAA changes its methodology, the most current model is used. The outcome is Yes if any year up to and including 2040 has an adjusted value greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can be decided as soon as a qualifying year is published; otherwise the value becomes final when NOAA publishes the annual global temperature for 2040, normally at 10:00 AM CT in the first half of the following January. If NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its Climate at a Glance global average temperature anomaly series for land and ocean, using the 12-month reading ending in December for each year. NOAA reports this anomaly against its 1901 to 2000 average, and the figure is adjusted to the 1850 to 1900 preindustrial baseline by an offset based on NOAA's reported 1850 to 1900 average, currently estimated at 0.18 degrees Celsius and subject to update if NOAA changes its methodology or historical record; if NOAA changes its methodology, the most current model is used. The outcome is Yes if any year up to and including 2040 has an adjusted value greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can be decided as soon as a qualifying year is published; otherwise the value becomes final when NOAA publishes the annual global temperature for 2040, normally at 10:00 AM CT in the first half of the following January. If NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.