Yes65%
No35%
Sep 11Sep 18Sep 25Oct 3Oct 11
100%75%50%25%0%
Expiration
US Average Temperature in 2026?
Chart
Above 52.199%
Above 52.698%
Above 53.193%
Above 53.690%
Sep 11Sep 18Sep 25Oct 3Oct 11
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 52.1
0%99%
Above 52.6
0%98%
Above 53.1
0%93%
Above 53.6
0%90%
Above 53.8
0%88%
Above 54
0%83%
Above 54.1
0%81%
Above 54.21
0%79%
Above 54.4
0%78%
Above 54.6
1%77%
Above 54.8
1%76%
Above 55.5
1%72%
Above 56
2%62%
Above 56.5
2%25%
Above 57
0%4%
Above 57.5
0%2%
Rules
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its U.S. Climate Division Database using the nClimDiv dataset. The deciding value is the reading for 2026, expressed in degrees Fahrenheit. Only the Fahrenheit value counts, even where the market question also shows Celsius. The outcome is Yes if that value is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the figure for 2026, scheduled for 10:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply; if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
Average temperature is the mean temperature across an area over a period of time, reported either directly or as a difference from a long-term average. The event is the average temperature of the US in 2026, expressed in degrees Fahrenheit.