The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in the "Global Temperatures" section of its annual Global Climate Report, normally published in the first half of the following January and based on the Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis (NOAAGlobalTemp), with anomalies measured against a 20th-century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius. The deciding value is the reading for 2026, expressed as degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average. Only the Celsius value counts, even where the market question also shows Fahrenheit, and if NOAA changes its methodology, the data from its most recent model is used. The outcome is Yes if that value is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the figure for 2026, scheduled for 10:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply; if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in the "Global Temperatures" section of its annual Global Climate Report, normally published in the first half of the following January and based on the Merged Land Ocean Global Surface Temperature Analysis (NOAAGlobalTemp), with anomalies measured against a 20th-century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius. The deciding value is the reading for 2026, expressed as degrees Celsius above the 20th-century average. Only the Celsius value counts, even where the market question also shows Fahrenheit, and if NOAA changes its methodology, the data from its most recent model is used. The outcome is Yes if that value is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the figure for 2026, scheduled for 10:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply; if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.