Yes65%
No35%
Sep 20Sep 28Oct 5Oct 13Oct 20
100%75%50%25%0%
Expiration
LIVE
Bank of Mexico Decision on November 5, 2026?
Chart
No Change64%
Cut 25 Bps49%
Hike 25 Bps30%
Hike 50 bps10%
Sep 20Sep 28Oct 5Oct 13Oct 20
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
No Change
20%64%
Cut 25 Bps
10%49%
Hike 25 Bps
0%30%
Hike 50 bps
0%10%
Cut 50 bps
0%10%
Rules
The outcome is decided by the target for the overnight interbank interest rate set by the Bank of Mexico's Governing Board at its meeting on November 5, 2026, as stated in the Monetary Policy Statement the Bank of Mexico publishes for that meeting, released at 1:00 PM CT, or 2:00 PM CT while US daylight saving time is in effect, since Mexico no longer observes daylight saving time. The basis point change, if any, is the one stated in the body of that statement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the statement is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The target for the overnight interbank interest rate is a policy interest rate that the Bank of Mexico's Governing Board sets for Mexico. The measure is the decision the Bank of Mexico announces on that target at its meeting on November 5, 2026, expressed as the direction and size of any change from the level in effect just before it.
