Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by July 2027?
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The outcome is decided by the US dollar price of Bitcoin in the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index, published by CF Benchmarks. For each minute, all index values in that minute are collected, the highest 20% and lowest 20% are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged to give a trimmed-mean price. A qualifying crossing happens when that trimmed-mean price moves from one side of the value specified in the market question to the other: for exceed, from at or below it to strictly above it, and for fall below, from at or above it to strictly below it. Where the market question says again, only the first qualifying crossing after listing counts. The outcome is Yes on the first qualifying crossing before July 2027, and it can resolve early at that point; otherwise it is No, determined at 11:59 PM CT on the last day before July 2027 begins, and if the index data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Bitcoin is a digital asset whose price moves continuously across global exchanges throughout each day. The measure is whether the US dollar price of Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 before July 2027, using a one-minute trimmed average of a real-time index price that drops the highest and lowest fifth of each minute's readings.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by July 2027” market ask?
Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by July 2027? It trades as one Yes/No contract: Yes pays $1 if the answer is yes, and No pays $1 if it is no.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by July 2027”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jul 1, 2027, 12:59 am ET, and payout is projected for Jul 1, 2027, 2:59 am ET.
How does “Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by July 2027” resolve, and from which source?
The outcome is decided by the US dollar price of Bitcoin in the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index, published by CF Benchmarks. For each minute, all index values in that minute are collected, the highest 20% and lowest 20% are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged to give a trimmed-mean price. A qualifying crossing happens when that trimmed-mean price moves from one side of the value specified in the market question to the other: for exceed, from at or below it to strictly above it, and for fall below, from at or above it to strictly below it. Where the market question says again, only the first qualifying crossing after listing counts. The outcome is Yes on the first qualifying crossing before July 2027, and it can resolve early at that point; otherwise it is No, determined at 11:59 PM CT on the last day before July 2027 begins, and if the index data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is CF Benchmarks.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by July 2027”?
Choose Yes or No and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
