Yes65%
No35%
Aug 30Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22Sep 29
100%75%50%25%0%

Bitcoin's return is calculated from CF Benchmarks' Cryptocurrency Real-Time Index, averaging the first and last minute of 2026; gold's return is calculated from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's front-month Gold Futures settlement price on the nearest trading days at the start and end of that period. The market resolves Yes if Bitcoin's return exceeds gold's over the period, No otherwise. Any delay in either source's published data delays resolution to match, with the outcome final on January 1, 2027.
Investors compare Bitcoin's price swings against gold's steadier long-term track record as competing hedges against inflation or market turmoil. This market follows whether Bitcoin's percentage return over 2026 comes out ahead of gold's.

Bitcoin's return is calculated from CF Benchmarks' Cryptocurrency Real-Time Index, averaging the first and last minute of 2026; gold's return is calculated from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's front-month Gold Futures settlement price on the nearest trading days at the start and end of that period. The market resolves Yes if Bitcoin's return exceeds gold's over the period, No otherwise. Any delay in either source's published data delays resolution to match, with the outcome final on January 1, 2027.
Investors compare Bitcoin's price swings against gold's steadier long-term track record as competing hedges against inflation or market turmoil. This market follows whether Bitcoin's percentage return over 2026 comes out ahead of gold's.