Bitcoin vs. Gold Return in 2026?
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
Bitcoin's return is calculated from the CF Benchmarks Cryptocurrency Real-Time Index, using the 60-second simple average of the index over the first minute and over the last minute of 2026; if the index is not published because of an outage, data interruption, or unscheduled maintenance, the next available 60 seconds of index data after the scheduled time is used. Gold's return is calculated from the official daily settlement price of the front-month Gold Futures contract published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), meaning the nearest-to-expiration listed contract through its final settlement date, taken on the first trading day on or after the start of 2026 and the last trading day on or before its end, and later revisions or values for other contract months are not considered. The outcome is Yes if Bitcoin's percentage return exceeds gold's over the full calendar period of 2026 and No otherwise. The outcome is not determined early and becomes final at 11:59:59 PM CT on the last day of 2026. If the CME settlement data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
A percentage return is the change in an asset's price over a period, expressed as a percentage of its starting price. The measure is whether the percentage return of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds the percentage return of gold over 2026.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Bitcoin vs. Gold Return in 2026” market ask?
Bitcoin vs. Gold Return in 2026? It trades as one Yes/No contract: Yes pays $1 if the answer is yes, and No pays $1 if it is no.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Bitcoin vs. Gold Return in 2026” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:14 pm ET, open interest is $110.
When does trading close on “Bitcoin vs. Gold Return in 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jan 1, 2027, 12:59 am ET, and payout is projected for Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 am ET.
How does “Bitcoin vs. Gold Return in 2026” resolve, and from which source?
Bitcoin's return is calculated from the CF Benchmarks Cryptocurrency Real-Time Index, using the 60-second simple average of the index over the first minute and over the last minute of 2026; if the index is not published because of an outage, data interruption, or unscheduled maintenance, the next available 60 seconds of index data after the scheduled time is used. Gold's return is calculated from the official daily settlement price of the front-month Gold Futures contract published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), meaning the nearest-to-expiration listed contract through its final settlement date, taken on the first trading day on or after the start of 2026 and the last trading day on or before its end, and later revisions or values for other contract months are not considered. The outcome is Yes if Bitcoin's percentage return exceeds gold's over the full calendar period of 2026 and No otherwise. The outcome is not determined early and becomes final at 11:59:59 PM CT on the last day of 2026. If the CME settlement data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is CF Benchmarks and ForecastEx.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Bitcoin vs. Gold Return in 2026”?
Choose Yes or No and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
