Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the deciding data in the Electric Power Monthly, shown in its Electricity Data Browser as Revenue from Retail Sales of Electricity, and the deciding value is total revenue from retail electricity sales to commercial customers in California for October 2026, in millions of US dollars, using the initial release value. The outcome is Yes if that value exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when EIA publishes the Electric Power Monthly with that month's data, typically in the last week of the month two months after October 2026, and early resolution does not apply. If EIA delays the release, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Electricity sales revenue is the total amount retail customers pay for the electricity they buy. The event is total monthly revenue from retail electricity sales to commercial customers in California, measured in millions of US dollars.
Questions and Answers
What does the “California Commercial Electricity Sales Revenue in October 2026” market ask?
California Commercial Electricity Sales Revenue in October 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 2,800” pays $1 if the result is above 2,800, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 9 thresholds, from “Above 2,800” to “Above 3,600”.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “California Commercial Electricity Sales Revenue in October 2026”?
Trading closes on Dec 22, 2026, 8:30 am ET. The outcome resolves on Dec 22, 2026, 5:30 pm ET, and payout is projected for Dec 22, 2026, 7:30 pm ET.
How does “California Commercial Electricity Sales Revenue in October 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the deciding data in the Electric Power Monthly, shown in its Electricity Data Browser as Revenue from Retail Sales of Electricity, and the deciding value is total revenue from retail electricity sales to commercial customers in California for October 2026, in millions of US dollars, using the initial release value. The outcome is Yes if that value exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when EIA publishes the Electric Power Monthly with that month's data, typically in the last week of the month two months after October 2026, and early resolution does not apply. If EIA delays the release, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Energy Information Administration.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “California Commercial Electricity Sales Revenue in October 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
