Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The official national statistics agency of Spain publishes the deciding data, and the outcome is decided by the consumer price index level for Spain for January 2027. Only the initial value in the official release counts, and later revisions are not used. The outcome is Yes if that level is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome is decided once that initial release is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Spain's consumer price index is the official index of prices paid by consumers in Spain for a basket of goods and services. The measure is the level of Spain's consumer price index for a given reference month, expressed as an index number relative to its base period.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Consumer Price Index of Spain in January 2027” market ask?
Consumer Price Index of Spain in January 2027? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 100” pays $1 if the result is above 100, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 11 thresholds, from “Above 100” to “Above 110”.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Consumer Price Index of Spain in January 2027”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Feb 19, 2027, 3:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Feb 19, 2027, 5:00 am ET.
How does “Consumer Price Index of Spain in January 2027” resolve, and from which source?
The official national statistics agency of Spain publishes the deciding data, and the outcome is decided by the consumer price index level for Spain for January 2027. Only the initial value in the official release counts, and later revisions are not used. The outcome is Yes if that level is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome is decided once that initial release is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Instituto Nacional de Estadistica.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Consumer Price Index of Spain in January 2027”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
