Yes65%
No35%
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Oct 1
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 64.891%
Above 6690%
Above 67.283%
Above 68.469%
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Oct 1
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 64.8
0%91%
Above 66
0%90%
Above 67.2
0%83%
Above 68.4
0%69%
Above 69.6
0%45%
Above 70.8
0%16%
Above 72
0%1%
Above 73.2
0%1%
Above 74.4
0%1%
Rules
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) publishes the deciding data in its Airline Traffic Data release. The deciding value is the seasonally adjusted number of domestic US airline passengers (enplanements) for December 2026, using only the initial release value. The outcome is Yes if it exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BTS publishes that month's data at 10:00 AM CT, typically in the second week of the third month after December 2026, and early resolution does not apply. If BTS delays the release, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Airline passenger counts measure enplanements, the number of passengers who board flights operated by US airlines. The event is the seasonally adjusted number of domestic airline passengers in the US over a calendar month, measured in millions.