Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:07 pm ET, Lumina’s “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026” market prices "Above 69.6" at 55% and "Above 70.8" at 26%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) publishes the deciding data in its Airline Traffic Data release. The deciding value is the seasonally adjusted number of domestic US airline passengers (enplanements) for December 2026, using only the initial release value. The outcome is Yes if it exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BTS publishes that month's data at 10:00 AM CT, typically in the second week of the third month after December 2026, and early resolution does not apply. If BTS delays the release, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Airline passenger counts measure enplanements, the number of passengers who board flights operated by US airlines. The event is the seasonally adjusted number of domestic airline passengers in the US in December 2026, measured in millions.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026” market ask?
Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 69.6” pays $1 if the result is above 69.6, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 9 thresholds, from “Above 64.8” to “Above 74.4”.
What are the current odds for “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:07 pm ET, Lumina’s “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026” market prices "Above 69.6" at 55% and "Above 70.8" at 26%.
Which range is most likely for “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:07 pm ET, the prices put the result above 69.6 but not above 70.8 at 29%, the most likely band on the ladder.
What does the price of "Above 69.6" mean in the “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:07 pm ET, a Yes contract on "Above 69.6" trades at 55¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 55¢ shows as 55%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Mar 15, 2027, 11:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Mar 15, 2027, 1:00 pm ET.
How does “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) publishes the deciding data in its Airline Traffic Data release. The deciding value is the seasonally adjusted number of domestic US airline passengers (enplanements) for December 2026, using only the initial release value. The outcome is Yes if it exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BTS publishes that month's data at 10:00 AM CT, typically in the second week of the third month after December 2026, and early resolution does not apply. If BTS delays the release, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Domestic US Air Travel Passengers in December 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
