Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding data in its monthly Consumer Price Index release, and the value used is the month-over-month CPI inflation rate reported in the first paragraph of the Consumer Price Index Summary (the 12-month percent change for a year-over-year rate, or the month-to-month percent change for a month-over-month rate). The outcome compares that rate for the month beginning November 1, 2026 with the same rate for the month before it, and is Increase if the new rate is higher, Remain the Same if it is equal, and Decrease if it is lower. The outcome becomes final when BLS releases the CPI data, typically at 7:30 AM CT on the scheduled release date, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
CPI inflation is the rate at which US consumer prices change, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The measure is whether the month-over-month CPI inflation rate for the month beginning November 1, 2026 is higher than, the same as, or lower than the rate for the month before it.
Questions and Answers
What does the “US Inflation Rate vs. Prior Month for November 1, 2026” market ask?
US Inflation Rate vs. Prior Month for November 1, 2026? The outcomes are Decrease, Increase and Remain the Same, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “US Inflation Rate vs. Prior Month for November 1, 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Dec 10, 2026, 8:30 am ET, and payout is projected for Dec 10, 2026, 10:30 am ET.
How does “US Inflation Rate vs. Prior Month for November 1, 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding data in its monthly Consumer Price Index release, and the value used is the month-over-month CPI inflation rate reported in the first paragraph of the Consumer Price Index Summary (the 12-month percent change for a year-over-year rate, or the month-to-month percent change for a month-over-month rate). The outcome compares that rate for the month beginning November 1, 2026 with the same rate for the month before it, and is Increase if the new rate is higher, Remain the Same if it is equal, and Decrease if it is lower. The outcome becomes final when BLS releases the CPI data, typically at 7:30 AM CT on the scheduled release date, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until the data is published. The resolution source is Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “US Inflation Rate vs. Prior Month for November 1, 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
